Natural and anthropogenic rapid changes in the Kara-Bogaz Gol over the last two centuries reconstructed from palynological analyses and a comparison to instrumental records

Palynological analyses (pollen and dinocysts) of a sediment core taken in the Kara-Bogaz Gol have been used to reconstruct rapid and catastrophic environmental changes over the last two centuries (chronology based on ²¹⁰Pb). A natural cyclicity (65 years) of water level changes in the Caspian Sea (CS) and in the Kara-Bogaz Gol (KBG) and anthropogenic factors (building of a dam separating the CS and the KBG waters) combine to induce rapid changes in water levels of the KBG, in the salinity of its waters and in vegetation cover of its surroundings. The impact of low water levels on the dinocysts is marked by a lower diversity and the survival of two species that are typical of the KBG, the Caspian Sea species present in the KBG having disappeared. During periods of higher water levels (AD 1871–1878), the lake is surrounded by a steppe-like vegetation dominated by Artemisia; whereas during periods of low water levels (AD 1878–1913 and AD 1955–1998), the emerged shore are colonised by Chenopodiaceae. The period of AD 1913–1955 corresponding to decreasing water levels has an extremely low pollen concentration and a maximum of reworking of arboreal taxa. During the last low-level period, humans responded by abandoning the shores of the bay. What happened to the KBG can be used as an example of what may happen in the future for the Aral Sea.A problem of reworking of Tertiary dinocysts into modern deposits has been detected owing to the knowledge of the modern dinoflagellate assemblages recently made available through a water survey. A comparison to modern surface pollen samples from Central Asia (Anzali, Caspian Sea south and central basins, Aral Sea, Lake Balkhash, Lake Issyk-Kul and the Chinese Tien-Shan range) allows us to establish the potential reworking of at least five arboreal pollen taxa possibly by run-off and dust storms.