基于CLUE-S模型的黄土台塬区土地利用变化模拟——以陕西省咸阳台塬区为例

本文以2000 年的TM遥感影像解译数据以及水文水资源数据为基础, 综合运用Binary Logistic、CLUE-S模型以及SPSS19.0 统计分析软件, 测评了咸阳黄土台塬区水土资源在数量和空间上的配置, 并在此基础上模拟了咸阳台塬区未来土地利用变化的图谱。分析发现:①从水土数量优化配置的结果可知, 耕地、草地、水域及未利用地面积减少, 而林地和建设用地面积则有增加的趋势;②从面向生态的角度出发, 黄土台塬区的水土优化配置结果反映了台塬区土地生态系统的生态价值和经济效益, 台塬区的生态效益由2000 年的1.5313 亿元增加到2020 年的1.5445 亿元;而台塬区的土地经济收益则由2000 年的68.4901 亿元增加到2020 年的71.9021 亿元;③从水土空间优化配置的结果可以看出, 咸阳台塬区建设用地在过去10 年以及未来10 年变化极为明显, 建设用地主要在原有建设用地周边进行拓展, 其中, 建设用地变化最为明显的区域主要集中在咸阳市的秦都区以及三原县。

Land Use Change Simulations in Loess Hilly Areas Based on CLUE-S Model: A Case Study in Xianyang Loess Tableland Areas of Shaanxi Province

Based on the remote sensing image interpretation in 2000,and combined with hydrology and water resources data,this paper evaluates optimal allocation of the soil and water resources in quantity and spatial configuration.On this basis,it simulates the land use change scenarios in Xianyang loess hilly areas through the application of binary logistic regression,CLUE-S model and SPSS 19.0 statistical analysis software.The results are shown as follows.(1) From the quantity results of optimal allocation of land and water,it is indicated that arable land,grassland,water area and unused land are decreasing,while the woodland and construction land areas are showing an increasing trend.(2) From the point of view of ecology,the results of optimal allocation of the soil and water resources in the loess hilly areas can reflect ecological value and economic benefits of land ecosystem.It is estimated that the ecological benefits would increase from 153.13 million yuan in 2000 to 154.45 million in 2020,and the land economic benefits would rise from 6.84901 billion to 7.19021 billion yuan in the 20 years.(3) From the results of spatial optimal allocation of water and land resources in the past 10 years and the next 10 years,we can come to a conclusion that the construction land has increased dramatically,and the increased area is mainly concentrated in the surrounding areas of original construction land.The areas with most significant construction land changes are mainly concentrated in the Qindu District of Xianyang city and Sanyuan county.