辽宁一次暴雨过程分析与暴雨落区预报失误原因探讨

从一次高空槽和华北气旋影响的暴雨、局部大暴雨落区预报出发，利用常规地面观测资料、加密自动站资料、高空探测资料和欧洲中心（ECMWF）数值预报产品资料，对2011年7月29-31日辽宁一次暴雨、局部大暴雨过程的天气形势和物理量场进行分析。结果表明：夏季暴雨预报不仅要考虑高层形势、副热带高压强度和位置大尺度环流形势的变化，也要考虑有利的大尺度环流背景下易产生的中小尺度天气系统，此次辽宁暴雨过程中在高空槽和华北气旋的发生发展过程中激发了中尺度气旋，中尺度气旋的强度和移动路径是预报此次暴雨、局部大暴雨落区的关键因素。

Analysis of a rainstorm process and its forecast error in Liaoning province

Falling areas of rainstorm and local heavy rain affected by high trough and North Chain cyclone were summarized. Based on the conventional ground observation data, intensive automatic weather station data, radiosonde data and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) numerical weather prediction products, weather situation, physical quantity field of a rainstorm process on July 29-31, 2011 were analyzed. The results show that forecasting for summer rainstorm considers not only large scale circulation such as high situation, subtropical high intensity and position and so on, but also mesoscale and small scale weather system that is easy to form under favorable large scale circulation background. Generation and development of upper level trough and North China cyclone trigger mesoscale cyclone in this process. Thus, intensity and moving path of mesoscale cyclone are the key factors forecasting this rainstorm process.