气候变化对作物产量影响的动态统计评价模式

气候变化对作物产量影响的动态统计评价模式，主要是运用积分回归原理，探索作物生育期内以旬为时间单位的气候变化对作物产量形成的影响规律。由于该模式能及时连续地进行气候影响评价，使评价工作能直接的为农业生产进行跟踪服务。在建模过程中引用了三项式产量预报模型、特殊影响因子诊断分析和选取最佳积分因归方程等方法，并在试用中取得了较满意的结果。

A Dynamic-Statistical Model for the Assessment of Effects of Climatic Change on Crop Yield

ccording to principles of integral regression,a dynamic statistical model is developed for the effects of climatic change on crop yield in the time scale of 10 days. The mode opens a new way for agricultural service of climatic influence assessment,because of its continuation and promptness. In order to make the model more suitable for practical use,the following methods are used during its establishment:three term crop yield forecast model,diagnostic analysis for special factors, and choice of best integral regression equation. And satisfactory results are achieved in model test.