Probabilistic stability assessment of slopes using high dimensional model representation

This paper presents a new computational tool for probabilistic stability assessment of earth slopes/embankments. The method involves high dimensional model representation (HDMR) that facilitates lower dimensional approximation of the original limit state, response surface generation of HDMR component functions, and Monte Carlo simulation. HDMR is a general set of quantitative model assessment and analysis tools for capturing the high-dimensional relationships between sets of input and output model variables. It is a very efficient formulation of the system response, if higher-order variable correlations are weak, allowing the physical model to be captured by the first few lower-order terms. Once the approximate form of the original limit state is defined, the failure probability can be obtained by statistical simulation. Results of four numerical examples indicate that the proposed method provides accurate and computationally efficient estimates of the failure probability of earth slopes/embankments.