Cycles in the scaling properties of length-of-day variations

Variations in the length-of-day (LOD) reflect the effects of several mechanisms in the Earth's rotation dynamics, including Earth–Sun and Earth–Moon line-up, geomagnetic effects and gravitational changes. Several studies showed that signatures of cycles occurring over a wide range of time scales are present in the LOD variations. The present work uses a fractal scaling study based on detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) to study persistence of LOD variations and to provide insights in the different cycling mechanisms. The results showed that that the LOD variations are persistent over a wide range of time scales, meaning that an increment (resp., decrement) is more likely to be followed by an increment (resp., decrement). The temporal variation of the scaling exponent obtained from the DFA showed that several cycles already reported from the direct LOD variations analysis are inherited by the scaling properties. Inter-annual cycles, including 4.3 and 18.6 years cycles, are linked to the variations of the stochastic dynamics of LOD fluctuations. In this way, the 18.6 years cycle attains a period where variations are mostly affected by white noise effects, reducing the predictability of the LOD anomalies. The results are discussed in terms of the different lunar tidal and core–mantle mechanisms and related to recent results in the literature.