Nonlinear geodynamics of the Baikal rift system: An evolution scenario with triple equilibrium bifurcation |
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Authors: | Anatoly V. Klyuchevskii |
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Affiliation: | Institute of the Earth''s Crust, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, 128, Lermontov Str., office 348, Irkutsk 664033, Russia |
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Abstract: | This is an attempt to analyze the current lithospheric stress pattern in the Baikal rift in terms of nonlinear dynamics as an open self-organizing system in order to gain more insights into the general laws of regional seismicity. According to the suggested approach, the stress pattern inferred from seismic moments of 70,000 MLH ≥ 2.0 events that occurred in the region between 1968 and 1994 is presented as a phase portrait in the phase spaces of the seismic moments. The obtained phase portrait of the system evolution fits well a scenario with triple equilibrium bifurcation where stress bifurcations account for the frequency of M > 5.5 earthquakes. Extrapolation of the results into the nearest future indicates probability of such a bifurcation (a catastrophe of stress), i.e., there is growing risk that M ≈ 7 events may happen in the region within a few years. |
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