云南红河南沙水库诱发地震的初步探讨

在对云南红河南沙水库库区主要诱震条件综合研究的基础上,通过对比相邻地区几个有类似条件的水库,并结合库区的有限元模拟试验和一般的统计结果,分析了该水库诱发地震的可能性、强度、时间、地点和影响。综合考虑,该水库诱发5.0级左右地震的可能性较大,危险库段主要是库首和库区中部,推测诱发最大地震的时间在蓄水之后的1～3年内。

A Preliminary Study on Induced Earthquake by Nansha Reservoir in Honghe, Yunnan

To discuss the possibility,magnitude,time,location and influence of the earthquake that may be induced by the Nansha,Honghe,Yunnan,reservoir,we analyzed the primary conditions of the Nansha reservoir inducing earthquake,contrasted it to the other reservoirs nearby with similar conditions,and calculated the tectonic stress field in the reservoir area with finite element simulation and statistics.The result shows that the risk is high that the Nansha reservoir induces the earthquake with magnitude about 5,mainly in the head and center of the reservoir,and the maximum earthquake will possibly occur in 1-3 years after the reservoir storing water.