The importance of the effective intermediate principal stress (σ′2) to fault slip patterns

In normal faulting regimes, the magnitudes and orientations of the maximum and minimum principal compressive stresses may be known with some confidence. However, the magnitude of the intermediate principal compressive stress is generally much more difficult to constrain and is often not considered to be an important factor. In this paper, we show that the slip characteristics of faults and fractures with complex or nonoptimal geometry are highly sensitive to variation or uncertainty in the ambient effective intermediate principal stress (σ′₂). Optimally oriented faults and fractures may be less sensitive to such variations or uncertainties. Slip tendency (T_s) analysis provides a basis for quantifying the effects of uncertainty in the magnitudes and orientations of all principal stresses and in any stress regime, thereby focusing efforts on the most important components of the system. We also show, for a normal faulting stress regime, that the proportion of potential surfaces experiencing high slip tendency (e.g., T_s ≥ 0.6) decreases from a maximum of about 38% where σ′₂ = σ′₃, to a minimum of approximately 14% where σ′₂ is halfway between σ′₃ and σ′₁, and increases to another high of approximately 29% where σ′₂ = σ′₁. This analysis illustrates the influence of the magnitude of σ′₂ on rock mass strength, an observation previously documented by experimental rock deformation studies. Because of the link between fault and fracture slip characteristics and transmissivity in critically stressed rock, this analysis can provide new insights into stress-controlled fault transmissivity.