Investigating high mortality during the cold season: mapping mean weather patterns of temperature and pressure

Due to a number of complicating factors, cold-related mortality has long been understudied. Through a synoptic climatological, environment-to-circulation perspective, this research takes a unique approach in examining anomalous surface temperature and pressure map patterns associated with the days leading up to high-mortality, spike days for Chicago, Illinois during the cold season. Atmospheric conditions leading to spike days during the cold season were evaluated through both seasonal anomaly and 1-day anomaly maps. Results indicate that high-mortality days are typically preceded by unseasonably cold weather situated over the region from 2 to 5 days beforehand, with significantly higher than average pressure 1 to 2 days before a mortality spike. As this system moves eastward, a significant 1-day warming trend accompanying a significant drop in sea level pressure follows—occurring on the day of the mortality spike or 1 day prior. Both scenarios—cold, high pressure air exposure and the rapid change in weather—are consistent with previous literature connecting them as factors contributing to cold-related mortality increases, with this sequence possibly playing a key role in yielding mortality levels anomalous enough to meet the threshold for a spike.