基于区间分析理论的地表沉降风险评价

为解决地表沉降风险的定量评价问题，提出了用区间估计的方法预测地表最大沉降，并在此基础上定义了风险评价指标。利用响应面法对地表最大沉降与地层参数之间的关系进行近似描述，基于区间分析理论确定地表最大沉降的区间范围，可较好考虑参数不确定性对计算结果的影响。以北京某在建车站主体侧洞为例，说明了此方法的适用性。

Risk evaluation of ground surface settlement based on interval analysis theory

To solve the problem of quantitative risk evaluation of the ground settlement, the interval estimation method to predict the ground surface maximum settlement is put forward in this paper, and thereafter the risk evaluation index is defined. The method employs the Response Surface Method(RSM) to approximately express the relation between the surface maximum settlement and the ground parameters, and determines the interval of the surface maximum settlement based on the interval analysis theory, which can deal with the effect of the parameter indeterminacy on calculation results. In the end, the application of the method is explained by taking a side drift of some station main body under construction in Beijing for example.