边坡变形及失稳的变权重组合预测模型

边坡变形和失稳受本身地质条件和外部环境等多方面因素的影响，由于这些因素的复杂性、多样性及其变化的随机性导致不同的边坡的位移和变形趋势有可能存在较大的差异。在分析总结边坡变形规律的基础上，针对边坡的典型位移-历时曲线需经历初始变形、稳定变形和加速变形3个阶段，呈反“S”型的特点，根据边坡位移的实测时间序列资料建立边坡变形的成长曲线反函数变权重组合的时变预测模型。通过与工程实例的对比分析表明，各单项预测方法是基于已知样本的固定模型，能大致反映边坡变形的发展趋势，但仍存在较大误差，而所提出的方法能充分考虑不同模型的优点，有较高的精度，适用于实际工程中边坡的变形预测及失稳的预警。

Variable-weight combination forecasting model of slope deformation and instability

Slope deformation and stability are influenced by geological conditions and external environmental factors and its displacement and deformation tendency may have such differences as complexity, variety and randomness of factors. Based on the analysis and summary of law of slope deformation and aimed at displacement-time curve of slope deformation presenting negative S-style characteristic with initial deformation, stability deformation and acceleration deformation in this paper, the variable-weight combination forecasting model with growth curve inverse function is built on the basis of measurement time series data of slope displacement. The contrastive analysis results with engineering application example show that the single forecasting method can approximately reflect deformation development trend of slope and have great error because the method based on the fixed model of known example, and the method which the paper presents can consider the advantages of different models and have application in deformation forecasting and instability warning of engineering project with high precision.