一维积云模式初始参数优化的研究

福建省人工增雨指挥系统在预报积云降水和评估增雨效果中曾采用一维时变积云模式。关于该模式初始场的确定 ,考虑到不同天气类型对模式初始参数的影响 ,并采用了以确定敏感参数为主 ,综合考虑其他影响参数为辅的方法。经分类调试 ,证明了一维模式初始场确实与天气类型有关 ,并得到旱期降水预报率大于 75%和可预报积云云顶高度的结果。通过对模拟云和实测云高度的线性回归分析 ,以及经拟合敏感参数初始扰动温度与平均地面最高气温 ,均存在较好的相关。

A Study of Optimizing Initial Parameter of One-Dimentional Cumulus Model

Fujian precipitation enhancement commanding system refers to a one-dimentional time dependent cumulus model of Hu ZhiJin.A research method of determining initial field of cumulus model in weather modification is discussed.Considering different weather type affecting model initial parameter,the method of determining sensitive parameter priority to other correlative parameter is developed synthetically.By classifying,it is proved that the model initial field is good correlative with weather type.It is obtaind that the precipitation forecast accuracy of model is greater than 75% and that is available to forecast cumulus height.It is also obtained that sensitive parameter (initial disturbance temperature) and mean surface maximum temperature are carrelative each other.