中国商品贸易结构不均衡性对地缘经济格局的影响

从国家对外经济联系中不同产业和产品结构的进出口贸易视角,考察中国^①（① 由于数据限制,本文研究区域为中国大陆地区,不包括港澳台地区。）地缘经济格局特征与影响。研究表明,中国商品贸易的总体态势是资源产品进口对富含能源国家的高依赖及工业制成品净出口对国际市场的强需求的不均衡特征;空间上则表现出国别、地区和方式较为单一且相对稳定,这可能会导致中国地缘经济与其他国家关联强度有一定的倾向性。集成资源产品进口和工业制成品进出口多指标显示,以工业制成品进出口为主的外向经济是影响中国当前地缘经济格局最主要的因素,而资源产品进口则次于工业制成品的作用,且石油和铁矿的作用高于天然气;在空间上形成了以重点经济发达国家与其外围周边国家为重点面域,联合重点能源国家为扩展的“面-点”地缘经济格局,中国进出口贸易地区大致形成了由近及远的多圈层结构,且关联度较低的国家镶嵌其中而表现出破碎化的特征。这一格局昭示未来一段时间中国地缘局势总体稳定,但受诸多不可控因素的影响,积极开辟和寻求多元化的地缘经济空间是有效应对对外经济联系突发事件的重要途径。

The Impact of Imbalance of Chinese Goods Trade Structure on the Geo-economic Spatial Pattern

Under the background of the geo-economic era, the economic cooperation and competition among countries will be the main melody of international relations. Based on the perspective of country’s foreign economic relations in different kinds of import and export trade of the industrial product structure, China’s geo-economic characteristics and the influence are probed in the article. The overall situation of China's industrial products import and export trade is that the country's high import dependence on those countries which are rich in energy resources products and the uneven characteristics of the strong demand of the international market. While in the spatial pattern, a single and relatively stable situation has been showed in country, region, and approach, which may lead China to be a certain bias with other countries on the geo-economics. The index integrated with import of resources products and import and export of manufactured goods reveals that the uppermost factor affecting China's current geo-economic pattern is the export-oriented economy that dominated by import and export of manufactured goods. While the role of import of resources products is inferior to that of manufactured goods, and the effect of oil and iron ore is higher than that of natural gas. In spatial distribution, "area point" geo-economic spatial pattern has been formed by developed countries and its peripheral neighboring countries as well as countries rich in energy resources. China has generally formed a multi-circle hierarchy pattern from the near to the distant. Countries with low correlation lie in them and show a fragmented feature. This pattern indicates that China's geo-political situation is generally stable for some time to come, while in consideration of the accumulation and evolution of many uncontrollable factors, actively exploring and seeking diversified geo-economic space is one of the effective ways to deal with foreign economic contact emergency.