中国海洋经济转型成效时空格局演变研究

基于海洋经济转型的内涵,构建包括6个分维度在内的中国海洋经济转型成效测度指标体系,利用粗糙集和灰理论组合赋权综合评价法,对2001-2011年中国海洋经济转型成效进行测度研究,并利用核密度估计及GIS空间分析技术对结果进行时空格局演变分析,结论如下：① 从全国层面来看,2001-2010年中国海洋经济转型整体集中在中低值区域,2010年以来,各区域转型均取得明显成效,海洋经济转型差距逐渐缩小,但整体差距仍然存在。② 从6 个分维度层面来看,海洋经济发展度稳步提高,但空间格局没有显著变化;海洋经济转型度、发展条件支撑度、资源集约利用度、生态环境响应度在空间上呈正向变化趋势,转型成效较为明显;海洋产业就业度呈反向变化趋势,说明转型对海洋产业就业存在挤出效应,对海洋产业就业产生重要影响。③ 中国海洋经济转型的时空格局演变是多种因素综合作用的结果,主要包括资源禀赋、区位条件、产业基础及腹地经济差异等。未来影响各省份海洋经济转型的主要因素包括国家政策、科技水平、海洋管理体制等。

Temporal and spatial pattern evolution of marine economic transformation effect in China

At present, the global enters the economic recovery period of international financial crisis, which is also a major adjustment period of international industrial division pattern, trade pattern, the focus of world economy and the contrast of economic power. The overall economic growth of advanced economies is still relatively weak. The change of global demand structure and various forms of trade protectionism have resulted in China's export growth slow down in terms of external demand, which has a great influence on the coastal areas of China, especially the development of marine economy. In the meantime, the rapid growth of China's coastal areas since the reform and opening up has led to high resource environment load, and contradictions among resources, environment and economic development are prominent. At present, the transition of domestic economy into a "new normal" economy has been marked by rapid growth. It not only indicated that the growth rate of economy may slow down, but also showed that the power of economic growth will be converted and the mode of development will change. Marine economy is an export-oriented economy, and coastal areas are the pioneer of China's economic development. Therefore, it is imminent for quality and efficiency improvement, restructuring and development of marine economy. Based on the connotation of marine economic transformation, 11 coastal provinces and municipalities of China (not including Hong Kong, Macao or Taiwan) are taken as the research objects in this paper. The index system to measure the effect of China's marine economic transformation is established, including six dimensions. The comprehensive evaluation method of combining rough sets and the Grey theory is used to measure and study the effect of marine economic transformation in China from 2001 to 2011. Then, kernel density estimation model and GIS spatial analysis technology are adopted to analyze temporal and spatial pattern evolution of the results, so as to reveal the inner change rules. The conclusions can be drawn as follows. (1) At the national level, China's overall marine economic transformation was concentrated in the mid-low value area from 2001 to 2010. Since 2010, significant results in terms of transition have been achieved in all the regions, and the gap in transformation of marine economy has narrowed, but an overall gap still exists. (2) As viewed from the dimension, the development degrees of marine economy maintain a steady improvement, but the difference in spatial pattern has not changed significantly; positive spatial trends with rapid change and significant transformation effect are presented in marine economic transformation degrees, development condition support degrees, resource intensive utilization degrees and ecological environment responsivity; the marine industry employment degrees show a reverse spatial trend; it is proven that the transformation has a "squeezing out effect" on marine industry employment, as well as an important impact on marine industry employment. (3) The temporal and spatial pattern evolution of China's marine economic transformation is the result of many factors, including resource endowment, location conditions, industrial foundation and differences in hinterland economy. In the future, national policies, the level of science and technology and marine management system will be major factors affecting the marine economic transformation of coastal provinces and cities in China.