江西省人口与经济发展时空耦合研究

以区域人口与经济发展的相互作用关系为主线,以江西省91个县（市、区）为研究对象,运用灰色关联法（GRA）,选取人口系统6个指标和经济系统5个指标,构建江西省人口与经济耦合关联模型,定量评判人口系统与经济系统交互作用的关联耦合程度,并将经济增长阶段理论及区域产业结构演进理论与耦合度相联系,分析人口与经济发展的耦合特征。研究结果表明：江西省各县（市、区）可以划分为低水平耦合区、拮抗型耦合区、磨合型耦合区和协调型耦合区等4种类型。全省人口与经济耦合度空间分布以低水平耦合类型为主,拮抗类型为辅。耦合度分布基本上符合南、北空间分异的规律,空间分布呈现“+”字型,以浙赣线为横轴,昌九线为纵轴,交汇于南昌市。在时间序列上,江西省人口与经济耦合发展表现出明显的波动性和阶段性,逐渐由低水平时期向拮抗阶段过渡。

The Space-time Coupling Between Population and Economic Development in Jiangxi Province

In the context of economic globalization and demographic urbanization, using interaction between regional population and economic development as the main line, the correlated coupling between population system and economic system was studied. Taking 91 counties (cities, districts) of Jiangxi Province as the investigated subject, with the support of GIS and gray relative analysis method (GRA), the model of coupling between population and economy was established by selecting 6 indicators of population system and 5 indicators of economic system. The distinction of coupling development research and coordination development research is shined here. This article associates economic growth stage theory and regional industrial structure evolution theory with coupling, so that the coupling characteristics of population and economic development in Jiangxi Province can be analyzed thoroughly. The following conclusions are found: In spatial sequence, according to the coupling degree and the distribution of economic development level, 91 counties (cities) of Jiangxi Province can be generally divided into four types: harmony (there are 2 districts), amelioration (there are 6 districts), conflict (there are 32 districts) and low-level coupling (there are 51 districts). The features of the coupling type regions are as follows: 1) Low-level coupling. It is the broadest all over the province, concentrated in the southern part of the province. It is mainly in the stage of agricultural economy (the coupling degree of population and economy is very large, and confliction of population and economy is very intense) or the original stage of industrialization (high correlation coupling, population and economic development are both relatively backward). 2) Conflict. It is a large range, mainly in the northern part of Jiangxi Province. And it is roughly in the initial stage of industrialization. Including two cases, one is in the development of counties and cities, and the population structure of employment is lag, constraining economic upgrading of industrial structure. The other one is in a higher degree of industrialization of the city, and the population quality status is a bottleneck of its economic development. 3) Amelioration. Scattered in urban areas, it is in the middle stage of industrialization. The contradiction between population and economy experiences the process of running and adaptation constantly. 4) Harmony. Located in Nanchang and Jiujiang cities, it is in the transitional period of advanced industrialization stage. Its population and economy develop simultaneously, promoting each other. The majority type of the whole province is low-level coupling, supplemented by conflict coupling. The dissertation analyzes characteristics and trends of associated coupling between population change and economic development from the time series. The spatial distribution of coupling degrees conforms to the law of north and south spatial variation. Its spatial distribution appears like "+" shaped, of which the horizontal axis of the concentration of population and economy is Jiangxi section of Zhejiang-Jiangxi railway, the vertical axis is Nanchang-Jiujiang railway, and they intersect in Nanchang. In time series, the sequential changes of the coupling degree between population and economy of Jiangxi Province present significant different phases and undulations, during the transition phase of which gradually from a low level to the stage of amelioration.