非静力模式预报热带气旋路径个例试验

利用非静力模式（ＭＭ５Ｖ２）对９６１１号、９９０４号等北上热带气旋路径预报进行民试验。用松驰（Ｎｕｄｇｉｎｇ）四维同化方案和人造热带气旋（Ｂｏｇｕｓ ＴＣ）技术，使独ｔ－１２时刻的模式场（包括第一个Ｂｏｇｕｓ ＴＣ）通过预积分逐步逼近ｔｏ时刻的Ｂｏｇｕｓ ＴＣ和同时刻的观测资料场庆１９９９年能够得到相隔６ｈ一次的ＡＴ１０６Ｌ１９预报场后，分别在ｔ－１２、ｔ－ａ６和ｔｏ时刻各制做一个Ｂｏｇｕｓ ＴＣ

Case study on tropical cyclone track prediction with MM5

WT5BZ]The tracks of tropical cyclone 9611 and 9904 were predicted by nonhydrostatic model(MM5).The techniques of the nudging of four dimensional data assimilation and bogus TC were employed. The first bogus TC was forced to approach the second bogus TC gradually from t -12 to t 0 during the 12 hours pre integration, which the observation nudging in MM5 was used. When the 6 hr.interval data of T106L19 were obtained in 1999, we created three bogus TCs separately at t -12 , t -6 and t 0.The former bogus TC approached later bogus TC during forecast integration. The influence of nudging was considered during integration from t 0 to t 12 ,and 48 hours forecast was completed. The results show that the forecast skill of track prediction with nudging is better than that without nudging, especially for unusual TC track.