对斯特恩新报告的要点评述和解读

 2006年10月,英国推出的由著名经济学家斯特恩爵士领导编写的《斯特恩回顾：气候变化经济学》,从经济学的角度着重论述了全球应对气候变化的紧迫性,强调只有尽快大幅度减少温室气体排放,才能避免全球升温超过2℃可能造成的巨大经济损失,且减排成本并不高。2008年4月,斯特恩爵士再次推出一份报告,提出为实现上述目标构建2012年后国际气候制度的基本要素,这对后续国际谈判可能会产生一定的影响。通过比较分析两份报告的关系和不同特点,对新报告中国际气候制度设计和评价的基本原则,全球减排的长期目标和减排义务的分担,通过资金、技术、市场、适应等国际政策措施吸引发展中国家参与,减少毁林排放,以及政策执行和制度建设等问题进行了评述和解读,其中内涵对深入开展国际气候制度的研究和我国参与国际气候谈判有重要启发。

Key Elements of the New Stern Report and Their Implications

In October 2006, the UK published "Stern Review? The Economics of Climate Change", in which the authors (Stern et al.) highlight the urgency of global actions to address climate change, emphasize that the early and deep reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is necessary to avoid the large economic losses resulted from the global temperature rising over 2℃, and state that the costs of reduction are moderate. In April 2008, Stern put forth a new report to discuss the elements of the global climate regime beyond 2012 to achieve the above objective, which could be influential to subsequent international negotiations. In this paper, based on the comparison of characteristics of the two reports and their linkages, some key elements of the new report, such as basic principles for the design and evaluation of international climate regime, the long-term objective of global emission reduction and burden sharing, the participation of developing countries, and international policy incentives related to finance, technology, market and adaptation, the emissions reduction from deforestation, and policy implementation and institutional construction, are reviewed and analyzed in more details. The insights from the new report could illuminate the further research work in this field and the China's strategy to participate in the international climate negotiations.