TAZ-level variation in work trip mode choice between 1990 and 2000 and the presence of rail transit

Rail transit continues to be a popular alternative for cities as a tool for alleviating automobile congestion and for redeveloping areas into transit and pedestrian-friendly environments. Ideally, rail transit will draw trips away from cars, but the quantitative work that tests this notion has often been either case studies of neighborhoods, in which conclusions are tough to generalize, or citywide comparisons where important spatial variation is lost in aggregation. This study seeks to narrow this gap in the research by using multivariate analysis of covariance to isolate the effect of covariates and cities on changes in work trip mode choice at the traffic analysis zone (TAZ) level for nine cities between 1990 and 2000. The results suggest differences by city in the change at the TAZ level of the proportion of people driving alone and taking transit. Increases in transit usage were associated with cities that built rail transit, while increases in automobile commuting and decreases in transit usage were associated with cities that did not.