An Abrupt Change in Tropospheric Temperature Gradient and Moisture Transport Over East Asia in the Late 1990s

ABSTRACT

Previous studies have shown that the recent summer climate (precipitation in particular) over East Asia is varying significantly. Here we extend the study to April, May, and June (AMJ) or the seasonal transition period associated with the onset of the summer monsoon. It is found that the average 1000–400?hPa AMJ tropospheric temperature (TT) experienced a sudden change at the end of the twentieth century. The change has a dipolar modal structure, with one pole over countries in Central Asia (Pakistan, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.) and the other over the Tibetan Plateau. The difference in the TT between the centres of the two poles (?TT), which characterizes the zonal gradient of the TT over Asia, has seen a significant reduction since 1999. The causal relations of ?TT with the local circulation, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), surface shortwave flux (SSWF), precipitation, etc. have been investigated using a newly developed rigorous causality analysis, which unambiguously reveals a one-way causality from ?TT to each of OLR, SSWF, and precipitation.