| 基于小波分解重构技术的西太平洋热带气旋生成频数预报模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 王举,蒋国荣,李建东,张韧.基于小波分解重构技术的西太平洋热带气旋生成频数预报模型[J].海洋预报,2004,21(1):35-42. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王举 蒋国荣 李建东 张韧 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京气象学院,江苏,南京,210044;解放军理工大学气象学院,江苏,南京,211101;解放军理工大学气象学院,江苏,南京,211101 |
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| 基金项目： | NSFC 重点基金(40136010)项目赞助。 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用小波的多尺度分辨特性和小波分解技术，将预测对象按不同时间尺度分解。通过去掉无法预测的高频变化，并依据时间尺度大小和不同的预报方法分别建立分解预报模型，再利用小波重构技术进行合成预报，使原本难以预测的问题变得较易预测。研究结果得出，利用此方法一方面可以用于预测复杂的气候变化，另一方面也可以同时提高预测效果。
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| 关 键 词： | 统计预报:小波分解与重构 神经网络 热带气旋 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-0239(2004)01-0035-08 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003年6月23日 |
THE PREDICT MODEL OF TROPICAL CYCLONE OCCURRENCE FREQUENCY NUMBER IN WEST PACIFIC OCEAN BASING ON THE RESOLVING AND RECONSTRUCING TECHNIQUE OF WAVELET |
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| Wang ju,Jiang Guorong,Li Jiandong,Zhang Ren.THE PREDICT MODEL OF TROPICAL CYCLONE OCCURRENCE FREQUENCY NUMBER IN WEST PACIFIC OCEAN BASING ON THE RESOLVING AND RECONSTRUCING TECHNIQUE OF WAVELET[J].Marine Forecasts,2004,21(1):35-42. |
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| Authors: | Wang ju Jiang Guorong Li Jiandong Zhang Ren |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, using the multi-scale resolution feature and resolving technique of wavelet, at first, we can change the unpredictable problem into predictiable problem by discarding high frequency change;Second, we can construct resolving predict model according to the difference of the time-scale and chosing the difference predict method; Finally, we make synthetical prediction by reconstructing technique of wavelet. Ii is finded that we can use this method both to predict complex climate change and to advance predict effects. |
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| Keywords: | statictical prediction resolving and reconstructing of wavelet neural network tropical cyclone |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
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