1980年以来北京农用地时空演变与驱动力

分析北京1980年、1990年、2000年的耕地率、粮食和蔬菜作物的种植率及粮食和蔬菜作物及果树作物的单位面积产量,得出北京农业用地变化类型由土地条件、国家政策和制度改革、农业生产技术进步、农村工业化、城市发展、栽培作物种类变化等多种驱动力的相互作用形成的。与人口密度进行量化相关分析后预测,到2020年北京粮食作物的生产会因生产技术的不断进步而有很大提高,其种植率将达到75%。蔬菜种植率将达到15%,显著增加地点在城市近郊外缘,城市近郊将有较大减少。果树栽培与其生产的分布格局则不会有太大变化。

On the Relationship between the Spatio-temporal Structure of Agricultural Land Use Changes and Density of Population in Beijing City from 1980 to 2000

In this paper we tried to analyze agricultural land use changes in Beijing City, and make clear their spatio-temporal structure. The sectoral structure of cultivated land is closely related to the physical land conditions, so that distribution of agricultural land use is basically determined by land conditions, which is one of the basic driving forces. As regards food crops cultivation, its sectoral structure is closely related to the driving forces as complex of land conditions, industrialization, policies, infrastructure and innovation. Although the sectoral structure of vegetables cultivation is closely related to the available land conditions, it is more important for them to develop alternative economic activities with the growth of urbanization and socialist market economy. On the other hand, the sectoral structure of fruits production is most closely related to the enlargement of profitability with the growth of urbanization and socialist market economy rather than the available land condition and alterative economic activities. Following our discussion, it seems to be concluded that sectoral differences of agricultural land use in Beijing City have been generally presented since the 1980s. This sectoral structure has been closely related to the complex of driving forces such as land conditions, agricultural policies, the alternative economic activities and urbanization.In addition, we calculated through mesh data of village and township statistics in Beijing City. Food crops productivity will be raised greatly due to constant agricultural technology innovation, and food crops land ratio will rise to 75% by 2020. Vegetables productivity will make marked progress in the inner urban fringe, and it will decrease greatly in the outer urban fringe of Beijing City. Vegetables land ratio will also reach 15% by 2020. Types of fruits productivity and culture of fruits over Beijing City by 2020 will not change much than now.