9806号台风异常移动特征的初步分析

９８０６号台风在其生命史中，共发生了７次突然左折和１次突然加速，形成了典型的倒抛物线型路径。本文初步分析了其异常移动的特征和原因，并详细比较了目前主要的业务预报方法对该台风的预报性能。为进一步揭示该类台风移动的物理机制积累经验，也为正确把握和使用各主要业务预报方法对该类台风预报结果的参考价值提供科学依据。

PRELIMINARY STUDY ON ANOMALOUS MOVEMENT CHARACTERISTIC OF TYPHOON 9806

There are seven times abruptly left change of movement direction and one snap acceleration during the lifetime of typhoon 9806, which characteristics and principium of anti-parabola track were preliminary dissect in this paper. Finally, the performances of major methods in now operation forecast were discussed, the results are useful to understand the reasons of anomalous movement as typhoon 9806, and to forecast it by correct using the objective method such as numerical model.