东海西北部中层冷水垂直热结构数值预报方法研究Ⅰ.一维数值预报模式

文中,以水温垂直剖面的自模性将其由T-Z分布变为θ-η剖面为基础,在考虑海面加热,忽略热平流效应和来自海底的热通量情况下,将海洋分为4层,并在各层内利用其自模函数的积分趋于常量的特性,对引入自模函数的热传导方程进行推导运算,导出描述含中层冷水垂直热结构7个特征量的闭合方程组.当解得这些特征量之后,代入含有自模函数的温度表达式,即获得预报的整个水温剖面.为了检验模式的功能,我们利用东海西北部海域中27个测站,以5月5日和5月10日实测的特征量作为初值,分别试报了5月10日和5月15日的特征量及水温剖面.试报的结果表明:试报特征值和温度剖面与其实测值之间的平均绝对误差,特征温度小于或等于0.23℃,特征深度小于或等于1.18m,而水温剖面小于或等于0.20℃.由此可见,试报的效果是令人满意的.

A study on the numerical prediction method of vertical thermal structure for the intermediate cold water in the northwest of East China Sea I . One-dimensional numerical prediction model

Based on the characteristic of the self-simulation of the vertical temperature profile and the property that the integral of similarity function is equal to constant at each layer, the sea was divided into 4 layers. The heat conduction equations of similarity function were deduced with considering heating from sea surface and nonheat transform at bottom. The equation set consists of 7 characteristic values of the vertical structure for the intermediate cold water. After these values were calculated, they were substituted to the temperature formulas of the self-simulating function. The temperature profile can be predicted. In order to examine this model efficacy the hindcastings were done. The effectiveness for a given period of time is 5 d. The results shows that the root-mean square error between the predicted and measured of the characteristic temperature was lower than or equal to 0.23 1C , the characteristic depth was lower than or equal to 1.18 m and the profile temperature was lower than or equal to 0.20 1C . It is shown that the results of trial prediction are satisfactory.