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天山北坡玛纳斯河355a来年径流量的重建与分析
引用本文:袁玉江,喻树龙,穆桂金,陈发虎,龚原,刘斌,朱云川,郭建国.天山北坡玛纳斯河355a来年径流量的重建与分析[J].冰川冻土,2005,27(3):411-417.
作者姓名:袁玉江  喻树龙  穆桂金  陈发虎  龚原  刘斌  朱云川  郭建国
作者单位:1. 中国气象局, 乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所, 新疆, 乌鲁木齐, 830002;2. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所, 新疆, 乌鲁木齐, 830011;3. 兰州大学资源环境学院, 甘肃, 兰州, 730000;4. 新疆水文水资源局, 新疆, 乌鲁木齐, 830001;5. 新疆林业局, 新疆, 乌鲁木齐, 830001
基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划) , 国家自然科学基金 , 科技部专项基金
摘    要:玛纳斯河树轮年表序列与该河肯斯瓦特水文站年径流总量相关显著,使用5个树轮年表序列较好地重建出天山北坡玛纳斯河肯斯瓦特水文站355a来的年径流总量,解释方差达61%.355a重建流量变化表明:1)玛纳斯河年径流总量355a来大致经历了11个偏枯水期和10个偏丰水期,最长的偏丰水期为1670-1699年,持续了30a,最长的偏枯水期为1949-1994年,持续了46a;2)最显著的两个百年流量变枯趋势为1872-1995年和1671-1775年,径流量减少率分别为0.19×108m3·(10a)-1和0.26×108m3·(10a)-1;3)在1711-1712年、1872年重建流量发生过两次突变,前者年径流量由多到少突变,后者相反;4)重建流量最丰水的年代为17世纪80-90年代,比现今偏多17.9%~18.1%,最枯水的年代为19世纪60年代,比现今偏少16.7%;5)重建流量存在着58~59、9.6、27.2、16.9、4.8、4.3、2.9~3.0a的变化周期.

关 键 词:树轮年表  天山北坡  玛纳斯河  径流量重建与分析  
文章编号:1000-0240(2005)03-0411-07
收稿时间:2004-10-10
修稿时间:2004年10月10日

Reconstruction and Analysis of the 355 a Runoff of the Manas River on the North Slopes of Tianshan Mountains
YUAN Yu-Jiang,YU Shu-Long,MU Gui-jin,CHENG Fa-hu,GONG Yuan,LIU Bin,ZHU Yun-chuan,GUO Jian-guo.Reconstruction and Analysis of the 355 a Runoff of the Manas River on the North Slopes of Tianshan Mountains[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2005,27(3):411-417.
Authors:YUAN Yu-Jiang  YU Shu-Long  MU Gui-jin  CHENG Fa-hu  GONG Yuan  LIU Bin  ZHU Yun-chuan  GUO Jian-guo
Institution:1. Institute of Desert and Meteorology, Chinese Meteorological Adminstration, Ürümqi Xinjiang 830002, China;2. Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Ürümqi Xinjiang 830011, China;3. College of Earth and Environment Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou Gansu 730000, China;4. Hydrological and Water Resources Bureau of Xinjiang, Ürümqi Xinjiang 830000, China;5. Forestry Bureau of Xinjiang, Ürümqi Xinjiang 830000, China
Abstract:Correlation analyses show that correlation between the series of the tree-ring chronologies from the Basin of Manas River and the annual runoff at Kensiwate Hydrological Station of the Manas River is significant and the best single correlation coefficient is 0.524, with a significance level of 0.0002. Using five series of tree-ring standard chronologies, a 355-year series of annual runoff can be reconstructed for Kensiwate Hydrological Station of the Manas River on the north slopes of Tianshan Mountains, with an explained variance of 61%. Verification from statistical parameters and independent reconstructed runoff data shows that the series of annual runoff reconstructed for the past 355 years is reliable. Analysis of the 355-year reconstructed runoff features indicates: 1)There were 11 periods below long-term mean and 10 periods above long-term mean. Among them, the longest period above mean was from 1670 to 1699, lasting 30 years, and the longest period below mean was from 1949 to 1994, lasting 46 years. 2)There were two drying periods with the highest significance, lasting more than 100 years, from 1872 to 1995 and from 1671 to 1775, with runoff decreasing rates of 0.19?108 m3·(10a)-1 and 0.26?108 m3·(10a)-1, respectively. 3)There were two abrupt changing periods from 1711 to 1712 and in 1872, the former changing from more to less, but the latter changing from less to more. 4)There were two rich-water decades in the 1660s and the 1670s, with a runoff of 17.9~18.1% more than that at present (the mean is 12.19?108 m3 from 1956 to 2000), and one short-water decade in the 1860s, with a runoff 16.7% less than that at present. 5)The reconstructed runoff has 58~59, 9.6, 27.2, 16.9, 4.8, 4.3, 2.9~3.0 years variation quasi-periods.
Keywords:tree-ring chronology  north slopes of the Tianshan Mountains  Manas River  reconstruction and analysis of runoff
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