Impacts of temperature on rice yields of different rice cultivation systems in southern China over the past 40 years |
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| Institution: | 1. Key Lab. of Digital Earth Science, Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, China;2. Key Laboratory of Computational Geodynamics, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;3. Beijing Meteorological Sevice, Beijing 100089, China;4. Department of Geography and Earth Science, University of Nebraska at Kearney, Kearney, NE 68849, USA;1. CIRAD, UMR AGAP, F-34398 Montpellier, France;2. International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), Crop and Environment Science Division (CESD), DAPO Box 7777, Metro Manila, Philippines;3. Bayer CropScience NV, Innovation Center, Technologie park 38, B-9052 Gent, Belgium;1. Division of Plant Physiology, Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi 110012, India;2. International Rice Research Institute, DAPO Box. 7777, Metro Manila, Philippines;3. Department of Agronomy, Kansas State University, Throckmorton Center, Manhattan, KS 66506, United States;1. College of Agronomy, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, PR China;2. Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing 210095, PR China;1. College of Agronomy, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, PR China;2. Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing 210095, PR China;1. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, P.R.China;2. Sichuan Provincial Climate Center, Chengdu 610072, P.R.China;1. International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), DAPO Box 7777, Metro Manila, Philippines;2. Centre for Crop Systems Analysis, Department of Plant Sciences, Wageningen University, PO Box 430, 6700 AK Wageningen, The Netherlands;3. Bayer CropScience NV Innovation Center—Research, Technologiepark 38, 9052 Zwijnaarde, Ghent, Belgium |
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| Abstract: | The impact of climate change on rice yield in China remains highly uncertain. We examined the impact of the change of maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) on rice yields in southern China from 1967 to 2007. The rice yields were simulated by using the DSSAT3.5 (Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer)-Rice model. The change of Tmax and Tmin in rice growing seasons and simulated rice yields as well as their correlations were analyzed. The simulated yields of middle rice and early rice had a decreasing trend, but late rice yields showed a weak rise trend. There was significant negative correlation between Tmax and the early rice yields, as well as the late rice yields in most stations, but non-significant negative correlation for the middle rice yields. An obviously negative relationship was found between Tmin and the early and middle rice yields, and a significant positive relationship was found between Tmin and the late rice yields. It indicated that under the recent climate warming, the increased Tmax brought strong negative impacts on early rice yields and late rice yields, but a weak negative impact on the middle rice yields; the increased Tmin had a strong negative impact on the middle rice yields and the early rice yields, but a significant positive impact on the late rice yields. It suggested that it is necessary to adjust rice planting date and adapt to higher Tmin. |
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| Keywords: | Climate change Impact Rice yields CERES-Rice model Southern China |
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