The changing malaria risk patterns in East-Central Europe and the North Balkans in the last 27 000 years

Southeast Europe has historically been at the crossroads of migration routes between Western Asia and Europe. In the Holocene, this area might have been home to malaria. However, it is questionable when malaria arrived in this area and whether it could persist continuously or not in the Holocene. To begin to answer these questions, the July potential generation number of two malaria parasites were modelled, based on the reconstructed mean July temperatures of 52 times in the last 27 000 years. The results indicate that in the late Pleistocene era (27–12 kya bp ), vivax malaria might have been present in the south-east Black Sea and Aegean Sea's coastal areas. Vivax malaria could also be present in the Pannonian Basin and the inner parts of the North Balkans at least from the mid-Greenlandian period (~10 kya bp ). Although it is questionable whether falciparum malaria could be endemic in the Pannonian Basin during the mid-Holocene climate optimum (~6 kya bp ), this malaria plausibly could be endemic from the Neolithic era (~12–6.5 kya bp ) in the major river valleys of the North Balkan region, millennia ahead of the Graeco-Roman times (8th century bce to 6th century ce ).