Identification and comparison of perennial yield estimation models using Mt. Amiata Aquifer (southern Tuscany,Italy) as an example

With the principal aim of identifying and comparing suitable evaluation and forecasting models of perennial yield, detailed hydrogeological research was conducted on the cold phreatic aquifer located in the volcanites of Mount Amiata, southern Tuscany's most important water reservoir. The study was based on spring discharge, precipitation, and temperature data. It permitted the identification of the following models: (1) ratios between discharge values measured at the springs, (2) depletion urve analysis of the springs, (3) multiple regression with climatic data, and (4) water balance, coefficients of potential infiltration and runoff coefficients derived on a physiographic basis. Analysis of the results obtained using these models shows their excellent ability to forecast in the medium and long term; for short-term (yearly) forecasts, highly satisfactory results have been obtained for most of the methods used. With regard to Mt. Amiata's average perennial yield, it is estimated at 55×10⁶ m³/yr (the maximum deviation among the various evaluations performed varies from 4 to 8 percent), and it presents a decreasing trend, which is proportional to the reduction of local precipitation.