A carbon budget for Brazil: Influence of future land-use change

Because of its large area of high C density forests and high deforestation rate, Brazil may play an important role in the global C cycle. The study reported here developed an estimate of Brazil's biotic CO₂-C budget for the period 1990–2010. The analysis used a spreadsheet C accounting model based on three major components: a conceptual model of ecosystem C cycling, a recently completed vegetation classification developed from remote-sensing data, and published estimates of C density for each of the vegetation classes. The dynamics of the model came from estimates of disturbance to ecosystems that release C and estimates of recovery from past disturbance that store C. The model was projected into the future with three alternative estimates of the rate of future land use change. Under all three deforestation scenarios Brazil was a C source in the range of about 3–5 × 10⁹ MgC over the 20-yr study period.The research described in this article has been funded wholly by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. This document has been prepared at the EPA National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory in Corvallis, OR, U.S.A., through contract number 68-C8-0006 to ManTech Environmental Research Services, Corp. It has been subjected to the Agency's peer and administrative review and approved for publication. Mention of trade names or commercial products does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use.