| 基于混沌理论的煤与瓦斯突出前兆时序预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵志刚,谭云亮.基于混沌理论的煤与瓦斯突出前兆时序预测研究[J].岩土力学,2009,30(7):2186-2190. |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵志刚 谭云亮 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.山东科技大学 矿山灾害预防控制教育部重点实验室，青岛 266510；2.煤炭科学研究总院 重庆研究院，重庆 400037 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展规划(973计划)，国家自然科学基金重点项目，国家自然科学基金，山东科技大学矿山灾害预防控制教育部重点实验室开放基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 煤与瓦斯突出的预测研究通常是通过监测对煤与瓦斯突出的启动比较敏感的指标来进行，指标监测数据的大小和变化规律是进行预测的基础。首先介绍了一步预测和多步预测的基本原理，然后对2组瓦斯浓度数据序列利用全域法、零阶局域法和一阶局域法进行了对比计算；计算结果表明，加权一阶局域法的预测精度相对较高，该方法对混沌性强的数据序列的预测精度高于混沌性弱的数据序列的预测精度。
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| 关 键 词： | 混沌理论 煤与瓦斯突出 前兆时序预测 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007-11-15 |
Study of premonitory time series prediction of coal and gas outbursts based on chaos theory |
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| ZHAO Zhi-gang,TAN Yun-liang.Study of premonitory time series prediction of coal and gas outbursts based on chaos theory[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2009,30(7):2186-2190. |
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| Authors: | ZHAO Zhi-gang TAN Yun-liang |
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| Institution: | 1. Key Laboratory of Mine Disaster Prevention and Control, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao 266510, China; 2. Chongqing Branch, China Coal Research Institute, Chongqing 400037, China |
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| Abstract: | The prediction study of coal and gas outbursts is carried out by monitoring some indices which are sensitive to the initiation of coal and gas outbursts. The values and changing rules of the indices monitoring data are the foundations of coal and gas outbursts prediction. The principle of chaos prediction is firstly introduced; and then two group data of gas density are calculated using global model, zero order model and one order model. The calculation results indicate that the accuracy of weighted one order model is higher; and the selecting of prediction method is associated with chaos property of monitored data series. |
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| Keywords: | chaos theory coal and gas outbursts premonitory time series prediction |
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