Influence of permeability in modeling of reservoir triggered seismicity in Koyna region,western India

The Koyna region located in the west coast of India is a classic example of reservoir triggered seismicity (RTS) that started soon after the impoundment of the Koyna reservoir in 1962. Previous studies have shown that RTS can be explained in terms of stress and pore pressure changes due to poroelastic response of the rock matrix. The permeability of rock matrix is a key parameter for pore pressure diffusion which is mainly responsible for generation of stress perturbation related to seismicity. Based on the poroelastic theory, we employ 2-D finite element models to simulate the evolution of pore pressure up to 5 years after the reservoir impoundment in 1962, using a range in permeability, 10^?16–10^?14 m². Constraints on material properties of Deccan basalt and granitic rocks were taken from available studies. The results show the formation of pore pressure front and its propagation with depth and time since the reservoir impoundment as a function of permeability. While a permeability of 10^?16 m² does not produce any significant change in pore pressure, a ten-fold increase in permeability produces significant changes up to a depth of 2 km only beneath the reservoir after 5 years of impoundment. Permeability values between 10^?15 m² and 10^?14 m² are required to induce critical pore pressure changes in the range 0.1–1 MPa up to depth of 10 km, capable of triggering earthquakes in a critically stressed region. Studies on core samples of granitic basement rock down to a depth of 1522 m in the Koyna region provide evidences of fracture zones that may contribute to water channelization. Direct measurements of material properties through the ongoing deep drilling programme would help to develop more realistic models of RTS.