天山北坡降雨补给型河流径流变化特征及其影响因子分析

依据天山北坡军塘湖河近30年的径流数据及降水数据，运用Kendall秩相关系数、R/S分析、降水-径流深累积双曲线等多种方法，探讨了军塘湖河流径流的年内、年际、季节变化特征及其影响因子.结果表明：军塘湖河径流年内分配不均衡，主要集中于春季；径流的年代际变化呈现明显的上升趋势，递增率为0.0015 m³·s^-1·a^-1，Hurst指数为0.6326；年内不同季节表现出不同的变化趋势，其中春、秋两季表现出递减趋势，而夏、冬两季表现出递增的趋势.近年来，受到人为因素和自然要素的影响，径流在径流-降水累积曲线中表现出一定的偏移，人为因素对径流的影响贡献率最大达25.68%，而降水对径流的贡献率为74.32%.由此，降水是影响军塘湖河径流变化的主要因素，而人为影响为次要因素.

Analysis of a river fed by precipitation in north slopes of the Tianshan Mountains: runoff characteristics and influence factors

Based on runoff and precipitation data of nearly 30 years over the Juntanghu River basin on the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains, using Kendall correlation method, R/S analysis, methods of precipitation-runoff accumulated hyperbolic curve and so on, the annual and seasonal runoff variation characteristics and influence factors of the Juntanghu River are discussed. Results show that annual runoff distribution is uneven, mainly concentrating in spring. The decadal variation of runoff has been significantly rising, with an increasing rate of 0.0015 m³·s^-1·a^-1 and a Hurst index of 0.6326. Seasonal variation shows different changing trends, a decreasing trend in spring and autumn and an increasing trend in summer and winter. In recent years, due to the influences of human activities and natural features, runoff and precipitation accumulation curves have showed a certain deviation, with the contribution rate of human activities to runoff of 25.68% and the maximum contribution rate of precipitation to runoff of 74.32%. Thus, precipitation is the main factor influencing runoff variation of Juntanghu River, followed by human activities.