Scenarios of possible changes in atmospheric temperatures and ozone concentrations due to man's activities,estimated with a one-dimensional coupled photochemical climate model

A one-dimensional coupled climate and chemistry model has been developed to estimate past and possible future changes in atmospheric temperatures and chemical composition due to human activities. The model takes into account heat flux into the oceans and uses a new tropospheric temperature lapse rate formulation. As found in other studies, we estimate that the combined greenhouse effect of CH₄, O₃, CF₂Cl₂, CFCl₃ and N₂O in the future will be about as large as that of CO₂. Our model calculates an increase in average global surface temperatures by about 0.6°C since the start of the industrial era and predicts for A.D. 2050 a twice as large additional rise. Substantial depletions of ozone in the upper stratosphere by between 25% and 55% are calculated, depending on scenario. Accompanying temperature changes are between 15°C and 25°C. Bromine compounds are found to be important, if no rigid international regulations on CFC emissions are effective. Our model may, however, concivably underestimate possible effects of CFCl₃, CF₂Cl₂, C₂F₃Cl₃ and other CFC and organic bromine emissions on lower stratospheric ozone, because it can not simulate the rapid breakdown of ozone which is now being observed worldwide. An uncertainty study regarding the photochemistry of stratospheric ozone, especially in the region below about 25 km, is included. We propose a reaction, involving excited molecular oxygen formation from ozone photolysis, as a possible solution to the problem of ozone concentrations calculated to be too low above 45 km. We also estimate that tropospheric ozone concentrations have grown strongly in the northern hemisphere since pre-industrial times and that further large increases may take place, especially if global emissions of NO_x from fossil fuel and biomass burning were to continue to increase. Growing NO_x emissions from aircraft may play an important role in ozone concentrations in the upper troposphere and low stratosphere.