Using a radiative-convective model to estimate the temperature potential of greenhouse gases

A comprehensive approach is proposed to the construction of an equilibrium global warming potential with the use of a radiative-convective model of climate and the line-by-line calculations of the characteristics of radiative transfer in the atmosphere on the basis of analysis and comparison of different methods of estimating emission metrics. The studies conducted in the past decade have demonstrated that a widely used method of calculating the global warming potential for methane and other trace greenhouse gases is applicable only to relatively small time horizons (within 100 years). The proposed equilibrium global warming potential makes it possible to consider a set of equilibrium states of the Earth’s climate system under variations in the contents of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and to estimate the parameters of the system’s response to such variations for arbitrary time intervals. Analysis of a set of different equilibrium states makes it possible to assess a relative contribution of different anthropogenic pollutants to radiation balance and, hence, to a change in the Earth’s climatic regime.