山东半岛城市群发展模式仿真研究

改革开放以来,山东半岛各城市迅速发展,极大推动了全省国民经济的发展,但与此同时,经济、环境与社会效益之间的矛盾也日趋激化。在分析该区主要人地关系问题的基础上,探讨生态环境与经济发展之间的相互关系,利用系统动力学模型进行多方案动态仿真模拟,进而利用协调发展度模型对各方案环境与经济协调发展程度进行定量评判,得出相对较优的发展方案,为该区协调发展提供战略决策依据。

Simulation Research on Development Pattern of Shandong Peninsula

The coordinative development between eco-environment and economy is very important for area's progress. The Shandong Peninsula Megalopolis develops rapidly since the reform and open-door policy, greatly promoting the national economic growth of Shandong Province. But coincidently, problems among economy, environment and social benefit become more and more acute, especially those about resources and environment pollution. There is a large number of population in Shandong Peninsula megalopolis, and at the same time, more people immigrate into this area with the pace of development and economic expansion, which will exert huge pressure on resources and environment, resulting into the descending of environment carrying capacity. As far as the resources problems are concerned, water resources has become the main bottleneck of regional economic and social development in this area-the water possessed by each person is less than one sixth of the average level in China. The energy consumption in Shandong Peninsula megalopolis is mainly relying on coal, and thus will not only accelerate the scarcity of energy but also bring about a series of environment problems such as water pollution , air pollution, ect. The realization of sustainable development of megalopolis must be on the basis of the coordinative development of urban economy, population, resources and environment. So it is necessary to take the Shandong Peninsula megalopolis into account as one system composed of four subsystems mentioned above. Based on the analysis on the central problems between human beings and the earth, this paper studies the interrelationship among these subsystems, establishes the multi-pattern simulation model by use of the System Dynamics, which consists of 151 indexes including 7 level variables, 11 rate variables, 76 auxiliary variables, 15 table variables and 42 parameters. According to the present situation and the interrelationship of Shandong Peninsula megalopolis, the model selects six indexes as dominant parameters to determine the patterns simulating the process of eco-environment and social economy development in this area. There are four patterns in all. In the first one, the original value of the dominant parameters is the natural state of this area in 2003, while the other three are regulated to different extent. In order to attain the relatively sustainable development pattern of Shandong Pennisula patterns in the following 20 years, the paper quantitatively judges each pattern according to the coordinative degree model. In the model, 8 indexes such as the gross domestic product per capita, total production value of agriculture, total production value of industry, the investment efficiency of the three industries, the capital asserts investment, the outlay of research and development, ect., are selected to reflect the social economy development situation, while five counterparts, such as waste water, are chosen to reflect the eco-environment situation in this area. After the evaluation by the coordinative degree model, we can intuitively find that the fourth patterns is the relatively better one, which not only attaches importance to economic development but also thinks much of the resources and environment, while the other three regards only one aspect. Furthermore, the paper gives several brief measures to guide how to realize the relatively better pattern in the following 20 years.