基于意愿价值评估法的禁牧政策生态补偿定量分析——以宁夏盐池县为例

禁牧政策作为生态补偿实践的重要内容,是解决中国广大牧区生态问题的战略性举措。合理的补偿标准是促进禁牧政策有效实施和持续推进的关键因素,因而受到学者广泛关注。本文以宁夏盐池县为例,应用Logistic回归模型分析城乡居民支付意愿及农户受偿意愿的影响因素,并采用意愿价值评估法(CVM)定量评估盐池县禁牧政策的补偿标准。结果表明:(1)农户的支付意愿与年总收入、羊只饲养规模正相关,与年龄、禁牧前后非农收入变化率、对禁牧政策的接受态度负相关;(2)县城居民的支付意愿与年龄负相关,与对环境的关注度正相关,与职业存在相关性;(3)农户的受偿意愿与人均粮食产量、羊只饲养规模正相关,与禁牧前后非农收入变化率负相关;(4)应用多重对应分析法得出影响农户支付水平和受偿水平的因素均为羊只饲养规模。结合CVM公式和Spike模型,对农户的支付、受偿标准及县城居民的支付标准进行定量评估。

Quantitative Analysis of Ecological Compensation for Prohibiting Grazing Policy Based on Contingent Valuation Method-A Case Study in Yanchi,Ningxia, China

As an important part of ecological compensation practice, prohibiting grazing policy is a strategic initiative to solve the ecological issues of vast pastoral area in our country. Reasonable compensation standard is a key factor for the effective implementation and continuous fulfillment of grazing policies, thus attracted scholars' extensive attention. Taking Yanchi County in Ningxia of China for an example, the logistic regression model was applied to analyze the factors which affect the farmers' and urban residents' willingness of payment and the farmers' accepting willingness, Contingent valuation method (CVM) quantitatively estimated the compensation standards of grazing policies in Yanchi. The results show: (1) The farmers' willingness to pay is positively correlated with the annual gross income and sheep raising scale, and negatively with age, non-farm income's change rate of pre-and post prohibiting grazing policy and acceptance on prohibiting grazing policy. (2) The urban residents' willingness to pay is negatively correlated with age, and positively with the attention-degree of environment and has a certain correlation with occupation. (3) The farmers' willingness to accept is positively correlated with per capita grain yield and sheep raising scale, and negatively with the non-farm income's change rate of pre-and post prohibiting grazing policy. (4) Application of multiple correspondence analyses shows that variables which affect payment's levels and accepting levels are the level of sheep raising scale. CVM formulas and Spike model were applied to quantitatively evaluate the standard of farmers' payment and accepting and urban residents' payment.