汶川大地震前宏观异常的现场调查

笔者对汶川大地震震区进行了20余天的现场调查, 主要围绕着极震区的汶川、 都江堰等市县镇村, 以及离开震中较远的宜宾、 高县的镇县、 乐山市、 广元市的苍溪等地区。 通过与灾区居民和村民的直接交谈、 实地考察与现象拍摄, 收集到震前宏观异常现象共约120余条, 包括电磁场、 地下流体、 地质异常、 动物、 人的感觉、 气象、 地声、 植物共计八类。 调查说明, 汶川大地震前确实存在一定数量和领域宽广的宏观异常现象, 其中的一些鲜为人知。 笔者认为专群结合、 群测群防是中国地震预报事业的不可缺少的重要环节, 对开拓专业研究的思路、 普及地震科学知识均有深远影响。 在地震预报难以解决的情况下, 应该考虑更为现实的技术途径和社会防范措施。

Field Investigation of Macro-anomalies before the Wenchuan MS8.0 Earthquake, Sichuan, China

Spending more than 20 days in the Wenchuan earthquake zone, I conducted a systematic field investigation into the macro-anomaly cases occurred at the earthquake region in particular in Wenchuan, Dujiangyan, Yingxiu, Beichuan, Shifang, Mianzhu, Hanwang, Mianyang, Chengdu and other counties. This article is a summary of copious examples and instances and a series of abnormal phenomena taken place in electromagnetic field, underground fluid, geographical appearances, meteorological conditions, …etc. which are considered to be earthquake warning signs and premonitions in the seismic area. Regarding the emergence of the forewarnings of the earthquake as surely appearing phenomena, this article expresses a personal point of view about the reasons of the fail to anticipating the earthquake and maintains that the close cooperation between the experts and the mass people is an indispensable means for earthquake forecasting. Then, I suggests, firstly, to mobilize the mass people into the earthquake forecasting work and, secondly, to develop the macro-watching system for the prediction of earthquake and, finally, to promote a large education for popularizing seismic knowledge.