Green Crab Larval Retention in Willapa Bay,Washington: An Intensive Lagrangian Modeling Approach |
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Authors: | Neil S Banas P Sean McDonald David A Armstrong |
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Institution: | (1) Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, Campus Box 355640, Seattle, WA 98195, USA;(2) School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Campus Box 355020, Seattle, WA 98195, USA |
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Abstract: | The European green crab (Carcinus maenas) is invasive on the U.S. West Coast. This study uses a high-resolution circulation model to determine the likelihood that
green crab larvae spawned in Willapa Bay, Washington could be retained by circulation and behavior long enough to reach maturity
and resettle within the bay. A particle-tracking method (the “diffusive Lagrangian return map”) is presented that makes it
possible to track the dispersion of hundreds of thousands of model larvae—each subject to three-dimensional advection, vertical
turbulent diffusion, and imposed vertical migration behavior—over their full 30–50 days development time with modest computational
resources. Larvae spawned in summer show significant retention (5–40%) in the southern and western portions of the bay, including
the Stackpole shoals near the mouth, the area most likely to be colonized by late-stage megalopae arriving from the coastal
ocean. Larvae spawned in spring show much less retention throughout the bay because of (1) increased flushing caused by increased
river input relative to summer conditions and (2) longer development times caused by lower water temperatures. The role of
larval swimming behavior is secondary to hydrodynamics in setting these spatial and seasonal patterns of retention. |
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