福州城市用地变化的CA模型动态模拟研究

城市用地变化是一种时空动态变化的复杂地理过程,如何有效地模拟这一过程是该研究领域的一个重要问题,在诸多模拟模型中元胞自动机具有明显优越性。本研究根据福州市1988年TM影像和2001、2004年ASTER影像提取城市用地信息,运用元胞自动机对未来20年城市用地变化进行模拟,并用2004年ASTER影像进行验证,结果表明:用元胞自动机对福州城市用地扩展的模拟达到较高的精度,未来20年内扩展平均速度将达7km²/年,远大于规划速度,扩展的主导方向为南部的南台岛,另一个重要扩展因素是乡村城市化加强,与此同时城市绿地不断被蚕食而减少。

Dynamic Simulation of Urban Land-use Change of Fuzhou City Based on CA Model

Urban land-use change is a complex dynamic and spatio-temporal process and how to simulate this process is a key problem in the research field and Cellular Automata Model has obvious superiority.In this study,a TM image in 1988 and two ASTER images in 2001 and 2004 respectively of Fuzhou city were used to extract the urban land-use information of the research area and Cellular Automata Model was used to simulate the change of urban land-use in the following 20 years from 2001 and the precision was tested by the ASTER image in 2004.The result shows that urban land-use will expand at a speed of 7km2/y and the leading direction of development will be the Nantai island with rural urbanization as the other key factor,at the same time the urban green area will shrink.