中国与周边国家地缘经济关系测度与时空格局演变分析

基于修正的引力模型测算中国与周边国家的地缘经济关系，进而借助ArcGIS刻画地缘经济关系时空格局演化过程，以揭示其总体规律与特征。结果表明（：1）中国与周边国家地缘经济关系总体呈现出波动上升的态势，但国别间差异显著且逐渐扩大，并以2009年与2016年为转折点，将中国与周边国家双边地缘经济关系划分成缓慢发展期（2001—2008年）、平稳增长期（2009—2015年）和快速增长期（2016—2019年）；（2）地缘经济关系总体上呈现东高西低的空间格局，即中国与东亚地区的日本和韩国为中-高至高地缘经济关系值，与西亚、南亚大多数周边国家主要为低至中-低地缘经济关系值。地缘经济关系格局演进的影响因素包括国际地缘环境、地缘经济利益、地缘区位、经济规模、资源要素禀赋、地缘文化等。

Measurement of geo-economic relationship between China and neighboring countries and evolution of its spatio-temporal pattern

Based on the revised gravity model, this paper measured the geo-economic relationship between China and neighboring countries, then used ArcGIS and Ai to describe the evolution of the geo-economic relationship in time and space to reveal its overall laws and characteristics. The results show that: (1) The overall geo-economic relationship between China and neighboring countries shows a trend of rising volatility, but the differences between countries are significant and gradually expanding. Taking 2009 and 2016 as the trough turning period, the bilateral geo-economic relations can be divided into slow development period (2001-2008), steady growth period (2009-2015) and rapid growth period (2016-2019); (2) The geo-economic relationship between China and neighboring countries generally showed a spatial pattern of high east and low west, that is, China and Japan and South Korea in East Asia are medium-high to high geo-economic relations, the value is mainly low to medium-low geo-economic relationship with most neighboring countries in West and South Asia. Factors in the evolution of the pattern of geo-economic relations include international geo-environment, geo-economic benefits, geo-location, economic scale and resource endowments, geo-culture, etc.