南水北调前后海河流域陆地水储量变化分析北大核心CSCD

基于GRACE及GRACE-FO重力卫星数据,通过滑动T检验确定海河流域陆地水储量突变的特征时间点,分析其时空演变特征;结合多变量趋势分析和贡献率量化法探究陆地水储量变化成因,讨论南水北调工程的贡献。结果表明,在南水北调前(2004-01~2015-01)后(2015-01~2020-10),海河流域陆地水储量的衰减趋势分别为-17.19 mm/a和-13.49 mm/a,缓解约24%,缓解趋势由南到北逐渐增大;人类活动与气候变化对流域陆地水储量变化的贡献率比为7∶3,人为耗水是海河流域陆地水储量常年处于亏损状态的主要原因;调水量的贡献率和趋势呈现年际增大和升高态势,预示南水北调工程在改善区域陆地水储量方面具有巨大潜力。

Analysis of Terrestrial Water Storage Changes in the Haihe River Basin before and after the South-to-North Water Diversion Project

Based on GRACE and GRACE-FO gravity satellite data, we use the moving T-test technique to determine the characteristic time point of the mutation of terrestrial water storage in the Haihe river basin, and analyze its spatiotemporal evolution characteristics. Combining multivariate trend analysis and contribution rate quantification method, we explore the causes of terrestrial water storage changes in the basin, and discuss the contribution of the south-to-north water diversion project. The results show that before (from January 2004 to January 2015) and after (from January 2015 to October 2020) the south-to-north water diversion project, the decline trends of terrestrial water storage in the Haihe river basin are -17.19 mm/a and -13.49 mm/a, respectively, relieved by about 24%, and the mitigation trend gradually increases from south to north. The ratio of contribution rate of human activities and climate change to the terrestrial water storage changes in the basin is 7∶3, anthropogenic water consumption is the main reason for the loss of water storage in the Haihe river basin all year round. The contribution rate and trend of the water transfer volume show a state of increasing and rising in the annual, indicating that the south-to-north water diversion project has great potential in improving regional terrestrial water storage.