黄河流域水资源利用与经济增长脱钩及影响因素分解

水资源是黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展的最大刚性约束,识别流域水资源利用变化驱动因素具有重要意义。首先从结构视角测度黄河流域水足迹变化,进而基于Tapio脱钩模型与Kaya-LMDI分解模型,解析水足迹与经济增长脱钩状态,并从技术效应、结构效应、规模效应、禀赋效应、城市化效应和人口效应识别水资源利用变化驱动因素。研究发现：(1)黄河流域水足迹总体呈现上升趋势,农业水足迹占比高达85%,用水结构与产业结构倒挂问题突出。(2)黄河流域上下游水资源量与水足迹空间分布不匹配,中下游面临更严重水资源约束。(3)水足迹与经济增长关系主要表现为弱脱钩,但2015—2019年各省区开始向强脱钩转变。(4)规模效应、城市化效应和人口效应对水足迹变化起拉动作用,技术效应、结构效应和禀赋效应对水足迹变化起抑制作用,但仍有提升潜力,各省区影响因素存在一定差异。为此,需要强化水资源利用技术研发与推广,推动农业集约式发展,提升农业用水效率,进一步优化产业结构和新型城镇化建设,缓解水资源约束困境,推动黄河流域经济高质量发展。

Decoupling and decomposition of driving factors of water resources utilization and economic growth in the Yellow River Basin

Water resources are the most rigid constraint for ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin. This paper first measures the changes of water footprint of the Yellow River basin from a structural perspective, and then analyzes the decoupling of water footprint and economic growth based on Tapio decoupling model and Kaya-LMDI decomposition model, and identifies the driving factors of water resources utilization change from the technical effect, structural effect, scale effect, endowment effect, urbanization effect and population effect. We found that: 1) the water footprint of the Yellow River basin is on the rise, the proportion of agricultural water footprint is as high as 85%, and the upside down problem of water structure and industrial structure is prominent; 2) The spatial distribution of water resource and water footprint does not match in the upper and lower reaches of the Yellow River basin, and the middle and lower reaches face more serious water resources restriction. 3) The relationship between water footprint and economic growth is mainly weak decoupling, but the provinces began to shift to strong decoupling in the period of 2015-2019. 4) Scale effect, urbanization effect, and population effect play a role in pulling water footprint changes, while technological effect, structural effect, and endowment effect play an inhibitory role in water footprint changes, but there is still potential for improvement. There are certain differences in influencing factors in different provinces and regions. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the research and extension of water resources utilization technology, promote the intensive development of agriculture, improve the efficiency of agricultural water use, further optimize the industrial structure and new urbanization construction, alleviate the dilemma of water resources constraints, and promote the high-quality economic development of the Yellow River Basin.