寒潮天气下高风险冰块追踪预测方法及数值模拟

为向拟建、在建和已建冰区所有冷源取水工程海域的海冰环境监测和动态风险预警提供技术支撑，本文构建了海冰–海洋耦合条件下的拉格朗日粒子追踪预测模型，并以辽东湾某核电站取水口为例，模拟并探讨了寒潮天气下高风险冰块在24 h、48 h和72 h的运移轨迹及其进入取水口的概率。结果表明，由于取水口的走向与流向和风向几乎垂直，因此在口门外随机释放的1 200个高风险冰块粒子中只有不到6%的粒子进入到取水口内。通过分区域标识粒子颜色，发现这些粒子多来自于靠近取水口300 m范围内。敏感性分析的结果表明，当释放粒子数量增至5倍时，结论不变。该项研究为冷源取水安全预警提供了一种新方法。

Tracking and forecasting method and numerical simulation of high-risk ice in cold wave weather

To provide technical support for sea ice environmental monitoring and dynamic risk early warning in the sea area of the proposed, under construction and built cold source water intake project in cold regions, a Lagrangian particle tracking prediction model under the sea ice ocean coupling condition is constructed in this paper. Taking the water intake of a nuclear power station in the Liaodong Bay as an example, the migration trajectories of high-risk ice blocks in 24 h, 48 h and 72 h under cold wave weather and the probability of entering the water intake are simulated and discussed. The results show that since the direction of the water intake is almost perpendicular to the flow direction and wind direction, less than 6% of the 1200 high-risk ice particles randomly released outside the water intake enter the water intake. It is found that most of the particles come from within 300 m near the water intake by identifying the particle color in different regions. The results of sensitivity analysis showed that when the number of released particles increased to 5 times, the conclusion remained unchanged. This study provides a new method for safety early warning of cold source water intake.