| 强对流实时短期预报业务应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 胡富泉,郭敏,张家澄.强对流实时短期预报业务应用[J].高原气象,2000,19(3):391-396. |
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| 作者姓名： | 胡富泉 郭敏 张家澄 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海中心气象台,上海市,200030 |
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| 摘 要： | θｓｅ特型法是一种强对流天气的短期预报方法，它把强对流天气预报化成预报引发背影条件下高能量预警型的强对流大概率事件。１９９５～１９９８年在上海地区进行强对流实时短期预报，准确率达８９％。
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| 关 键 词： | θse特型法 强对流天气 短期预报 预警系统 |
| 修稿时间： | 1998-11-30 |
ON THE OPERATIONAL APPLICATION OF REAL-TIME SHORT-RANGE FORECAST OF SEVERE CONVECTION |
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| HU Fu-quan,GUO Min,ZHANG Jia-cheng.ON THE OPERATIONAL APPLICATION OF REAL-TIME SHORT-RANGE FORECAST OF SEVERE CONVECTION[J].Plateau Meteorology,2000,19(3):391-396. |
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| Authors: | HU Fu-quan GUO Min ZHANG Jia-cheng |
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| Abstract: | se characteristic method is a short range forecast of severe convective weather. It can make severe convective weather forecast into predicting presaging severe convective high probability events under trigger mechanism condition. From 1995 to 1998, the accuracy of real time short range forecast in Shanghai area has reached 89 percents. |
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| Keywords: | secharacteristic method Conditional probability The short range forecast of severe convective weather Presaging system |
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