青藏铁路沿线1373年以来气温和地温的变化研究

利用青藏铁路沿线（格尔木_拉萨段）近600 a的历史气候代用资料,统计了各资料的年代序列,并用相关、功率谱、谐波、趋势分析等气候诊断方法进行了研究。结果表明:年平均地面温度17世纪中后期至18世纪初为偏冷阶段,20世纪后期为偏暖阶段,升温从18世纪中期开始,一直维持到20世纪末。该地区年平均地面温度和气温16世纪、19～20世纪相对偏暖,而15世纪、17～18世纪偏冷,20世纪的增温程度超过了19世纪的水平。自然波动周期为4～5个。

Change on Temperature along Qinhai-Xizang Railway since Year 1373

Using the latest 600 years historic climate proxy data along the Qinhai-Xizang railway（GRM～LASA stage）, we have made the decadal sequence of each data, and have also analyzed it with the climatic diagnosis method of correlation, power spectrum, harmonic analysis, trend etc. The results show that the annual mean surface temperature was colder from the middle and end of the 17th century to the beginning of the 18th century, while it was warmer at the end of the 20th century. Warming began from the middle of the 18th century and maintained till the end of the 20th century. The annual mean surface temperature and air temperature were comparative warmer in the 16th, the 19th and the 20th century, while comparative colder in the 15th, the 17th and the 18th century; the extend of temperature warming up in the 20th century exceeded that in the 19th century. The natural wave period of temperature included 4 or 5 entries.