地球长波辐射 (OLR)遥感与重大自然灾害预测

针对目前重大自然灾害 (如地震、洪水泛滥、火山喷发等 )还难能作出短期预测预警的现实状况 ,文中提出利用极轨卫星遥感所监测的“地气”系统射出长波辐射 (即OLR)信息 ,是可能攻克这一难关的突破口。文中不仅详细介绍了有关OLR数据的产出原理及其载荷卫星 (NOAA)运行的主要参数 ,而且还结合近年来发生的重大自然灾害实例 ,利用笔者研究的应用OLR提取灾前预测信息的3种方法 ,客观地给出了OLR时空变化图像。结果显示 ,在重大自然灾害事件发生前 ,在未来可能发生重灾的区域及其附近 ,OLR呈现出比周围区域更显著的辐射增强变化特征。这一特征的揭示 ,为利用卫星遥感技术预测未来可能发灾区域及时作出短期预测预警提供了一种新的途径。文末对目前有关强震前热红外异常成因的两种看法做了综合介绍和简要评述。

PREDICTING HEAVY DISASTERS BY OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION(OLR) OF THE EARTH

Up to now it is very difficult to predict heavy disasters (earthquake, floods, volcano eruption), especially to raise an alarm in short term. This paper presents a new method to monitor the OLR(Outgoing Longwave Radiation) message originated the "Earth Atmosphere"system by means of satellite remote sensing, and considers that the method can be an effective one to break down the barrier of prediction. In the paper we not only introduce the details of the physical nature of the OLR as well as its principle of production including the flight parameters of Satellite, but also combining illustrations of heavy disasters describe three kinds of methods for distinguishing anomalistic message indications before risk occurrence. Because these indications are localizable and intensive in the distribution of the OLR time space field, and do not relate with the difference of what the district is, what the season is, and what kind of the hazard itself is, they would be effective for judging the future risk 8areas and raising alarm in time.Two reasonable ideas relating to the infrared radiation mechanism are reviewed.