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长江流域极端降水过程事件的年内分布特征
引用本文:许冠宇, 李琳琳, 田刚, 孟英杰, 牛奔. 2020: 国家级降水融合产品在长江流域的适用性评估. 暴雨灾害, 39(4): 400-408. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2020.04.010
作者姓名:许冠宇  李琳琳  田刚  孟英杰  牛奔
作者单位:1.武汉中心气象台, 武汉 430074;2.三峡梯调通信中心, 宜昌 443000
基金项目:中国长江电力股份有限公司科研项目长江流域降水网格预报技术研究(2418020001);2016年中国气象局小型建设项目“长江黄金水道及近海航运交通气象服务系统建设”;中国气象局“2018年山洪地质灾害防治气象保障工程建设”;湖北省突发事件预警信息发布系统建设项目(鄂发改审批服务(2017)45号);湖北省财政项目“湖北省精细化气象预警预报预测业务系统建设”(2017-685-001-04、2018-685-001-001)
摘    要:

挑选2018年发生在长江流域的8次大范围降水过程,对国家信息中心二源降水融合产品和多源降水融合产品进行适用性评估。结果表明:(1)降水融合产品对长江流域降水的估算结果平均较实况数值偏小,降水量级越大估算误差也越大,多源降水融合产品与二源降水融合产品相比,估算误差绝对值平均偏小2~3 mm。(2)与二源降水融合产品相比,多源降水融合产品对5 mm以下量级降水的估算准确率提高最显著,其次对40~49.9 mm量级降水估算准确率提高较大。(3)降水融合产品对嘉陵江、岷沱江、长江中游干流区域的估测降水误差相对较小。



关 键 词:长江流域  降水融合产品  检验评估
收稿时间:2020-03-31

The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Monthly Analysis (New Version 2.3) and a Review of 2017 Global Precipitation
XU Guanyu, LI Lingling, TIAN Gang, MENG Yingjie, NIU Ben. 2020: Assessing the applicability of national precipitation merged products in the Yangtze River Basin. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 39(4): 400-408. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2020.04.010
Authors:XU Guanyu  LI Lingling  TIAN Gang  MENG Yingjie  NIU Ben
Affiliation:1.Wuhan Center Meteorological Observatory, Wuhan 430074;2.Three Gorges Cascade Dispatch&Communication Center, Yichang 443000
Abstract:By choosing eight large-scale precipitation events in the Yangtze River Basin during 2018, we assess the applicability of two-source and multi-source precipitation merged products in Yangtze River Basin. The data are provided by National Meteorological Infor-mation Center. Results are as follows. (1) The value of precipitation merged products in the Yangtze River Basin is smaller than the observa-tion data on average. The larger the precipitation is, the larger the error is in the merged product. The absolute error in the multi-source merged product is 2-3 mm smaller than that in the two-source merged product. (2) The estimation accuracy shows that the multi-source pre-cipitation merged product has the most significant improvement in the precipitation below 5mm, compared with the two-source precipitation merged products, followed by in the range of 40-49.9 mm precipitation. (3) The estimation error of precipitation merged product in Jialing River, Mintuo River and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River are relatively small.
Keywords:Yangtze River Basin  precipitation merged products  Inspection and evaluation
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