| 过去2000年典型暖期北半球温度变化特征及成因分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 易慧郁, 刘健, 孙炜毅, 戴张奇, 严蜜, 宁亮. 过去2000年典型暖期北半球温度变化特征及成因分析[J]. 第四纪研究, 2021, 41(2): 497-509. doi: 10.11928/j.issn.1001-7410.2021.02.17 |
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| 作者姓名： | 易慧郁 刘健 孙炜毅 戴张奇 严蜜 宁亮 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 南京师范大学虚拟地理环境教育部重点实验室/江苏省地理环境演化国家重点实验室培育建设点/江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心, 南京师范大学地理科学学院, 江苏 南京 210023; 2. 江苏省大规模复杂系统数值模拟重点实验室, 南京师范大学数学科学学院, 江苏 南京 210023; 3. 青岛海洋科学与技术试点国家实验室海洋-气候-同位素模拟开放工作室, 山东 青岛 266237; 4. 中国科学院地球环境研究所, 黄土与第四纪地质国家重点实验室, 陕西 西安 710061 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划项目（批准号：2016YFA0600401）、国家自然科学基金项目（批准号：41971108、41942033、41971021和41671197）、江苏省高校优势学科建设项目（批准号：164320H116）和中国科学院地球环境研究所黄土与第四纪地质国家重点实验室开放基金项目（批准号：SKLLQG1820和SKLLQG1930）共同资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 过去2000年包含了罗马暖期（Roman Warm Period，简称RWP）、中世纪气候异常期（Medieval Climate Anomaly，简称MCA）和现代暖期（Present Warm Period，简称PWP）这3个典型暖期，前人对罗马暖期的关注相对较少。为了更好地对比自然暖期和叠加了人类活动的暖期的温度变化特征及成因，文章利用通用地球系统模式（Community Earth System Model，简称CESM）的过去2000年气候模拟试验资料，在与重建资料和同化资料（Last Millennium Reanalysis，简称LMR）进行对比验证的基础上，对这3个典型暖期北半球的温度变化特征和成因机制进行了初步探讨。结果表明：CESM的全强迫试验能很好地模拟出重建资料与LMR所反映的两个自然暖期（RWP和MCA）以及PWP，PWP相较于RWP和MCA北半球增温幅度明显更大。通过对比单因子敏感性试验结果发现，RWP时期主要受土地覆盖变化的影响，同时太阳活动、火山活动强迫对地表增温有一定调节作用；而MCA时期的火山活动频率相比RWP时期更小，且太阳活动稳定，此时土地覆盖的调节作用相比RWP时期减弱；PWP时期在温室气体强迫驱动下，地表温度增加显著，其贡献远超过火山活动、太阳活动两个外强迫因子，此时土地利用/覆盖强迫对增温显示出负向影响，同时北极涛动增强，进一步加剧PWP时期的增温。
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| 关 键 词： | 过去2000年 气候模拟 典型暖期 温度变化 成因机制 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-10-15 |
| 修稿时间： | 2021-01-06 |
Study on the characteristics and mechanisms of temperature change over the Northern Hemisphere in the typical warm periods during the past 2000 years |
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| YI Huiyu, LIU Jian, SUN Weiyi, DAI Zhangqi, YAN Mi, NING Liang. Study on the characteristics and mechanisms of temperature change over the Northern Hemisphere in the typical warm periods during the past 2000 years[J]. Quaternary Sciences, 2021, 41(2): 497-509. doi: 10.11928/j.issn.1001-7410.2021.02.17 |
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| Authors: | YI Huiyu LIU Jian SUN Weiyi DAI Zhangqi YAN Mi NING Liang |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Key Laboratory for Virtual Geographic Environment of Ministry of Education, State Key Laboratory Cultivation Base of Geographical Environment Evolution of Jiangsu Province, Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, School of Geography Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, Jiangsu; 2. Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory for Numerical Simulation of Large Scale Complex Systems, School of Mathematical Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, Jiangsu; 3. Open Studio for the Simulation of Ocean-Climate-Isotope, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao 266237, Shandong; 4. State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Science, Xi'an 710061, Shaanxi |
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| Abstract: | There are 3 typical warm periods, i.e. the Roman Warm Period(RWP), the Medieval Climate Anomaly(MCA), and the Present Warm Period(PWP) during the past 2000 years. The predecessors paid relatively little attention to the Roman warm period. In order to better compare the characteristics and mechanisms of temperature changes over the Northern Hemisphere in the natural warm periods and the warm period supercharged with human activities, We compared the simulation experiment data from the Community Earth System Model(CESM) with the reconstruction data, including the Last Millennium Reanalysis(LMR) and the reconstruction integration results(Proxy). In addition, the simulation experiment data include the all forcing experiment(AF) and four single forcing sensitivity experiments. The results show that the AF can well simulate the two natural warm periods(RWP and MCA) and PWP as reflected by the LMR and Proxy. |
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| Keywords: | past 2000 years climate simulation typical warm periods temperature variation attribution |
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