漾濞6.4级地震孕震背景分析和跨断层定量化异常指标提取

基于云南省内11处跨断层场地资料，结合跨断层数据分析方法，系统提取云南地区地震综合预测指标，并对其在漾濞6.4级地震前的映震能力进行分析。结果表明，跨断层资料在漾濞地震发生前存在显著的中期异常，且漾濞地震的发生可能与川滇菱形块体西边界的活动增强有关。跨断层中期指标对漾濞地震作出较好的预测，短期指标虽然也通过了效能评估，但预报效能稍差。在后续的跨断层资料分析中，应更加注重中期异常及中期预测指标的提取和应用，总结得到的综合指标可应用于云南地区的震情跟踪工作。

Seismogenic Background Analysis and Cross-Fault Quantitative AbnormalIndex Extraction for the M6.4 Yangbi Earthquake

Based on data from 11 cross-fault sites in Yunnan province, applying the cross-fault data analysis method, this paper systematically summarizes and extracts the comprehensive seismic prediction indexes in Yunnan province. By analyzing and summarizing the response ability of these indexes before the Yangbi M6.4 earthquake, the preliminary conclusion is that there is a significant mid-term anomaly in the cross-fault data before the Yangbi M6.4 earthquake, and that the occurrence of the earthquake may be related to the increase in activity of the western boundary of the Sichuan-Yunnan diamond block. The cross-fault mid-term prediction index makes a good estimate for the Yangbi M6.4 earthquake. Short-term indicators also pass the effectiveness criterion, but forecast effectiveness is slightly worse. Therefore, in the subsequent analysis of cross-fault data, more attention should be paid to the extraction and application of medium-term anomalies and medium-term prediction indexes. The comprehensive indexes summarized in this paper can be applied to follow-up earthquake situation tracking in Yunnan area.