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甘肃省不同地区不同时段人员在室率研究
引用本文:周中红,陈文凯,何少林,孙艳萍.甘肃省不同地区不同时段人员在室率研究[J].震灾防御技术,2021,16(3):501-509.
作者姓名:周中红  陈文凯  何少林  孙艳萍
作者单位:甘肃省地震局,兰州 730000
基金项目:甘肃省地震局地震科技发展基金(2019M01);“十三五”国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFB0504104)
摘    要:本文依据甘肃省区域特点,针对城市和不同农村区域,根据人员活动,采用在室率对人员在室内的情况进行评估研究。采用泊松公式表示家庭人数概率分布,建立城市和不同农村区域不同时段人员在室内的分区概率公式。研究结果表明,对于城市区域,工作日与节假日人员在室率具有明显差别;对于农村区域或牧区,因区域、季节不同,不同时段人员在室率有所不同;总体上甘南牧区每年10月至次年3月人员在室率较高,省内其他农村区域每年11月至次年2月人员在室率较高。

关 键 词:甘肃省    人员在室率    人员伤亡    快速评估
收稿时间:2020-12-30

Study on In-building Probability of Different Periods and Different Regions in Gansu Province
Zhou Zhonghong,Chen Wenkai,He Shaolin,Sun Yanping.Study on In-building Probability of Different Periods and Different Regions in Gansu Province[J].Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention,2021,16(3):501-509.
Authors:Zhou Zhonghong  Chen Wenkai  He Shaolin  Sun Yanping
Institution:Earthquake Administration of Gansu Province, Lanzhou 730000, China
Abstract:Based on the regional characteristics of the cities and different rural areas in Gansu and people's activities during the daytime, the index of in-building probability is used to evaluate and research people’s indoor situations. The Poisson formula is used to represent the probability distribution of household population, so as to establish the probability formula of people indoors at different time periods in urban and rural areas. The results show that the probability of people indoors during the day varies significantly depending on whether it’s workday or holiday in urban areas. In rural or pastoral areas, the in-building probability at different times of the day varies as well, due to regional and seasonal differences.In general, in the pastoral areas of southern Gansu, the in-building probability from October to March of the next year is relatively higher than that of other months, while in other rural areas of Gansu the probability from November to February of the next year is higher than that of other months.
Keywords:Gansu region  In-building probability  Earthquake casualty  Rapid assessment
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